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2030年---馬來西亞5個经济特区
---柔南依斯干達經濟特區(Iskandar Malaysia)=601億8000萬令吉
---北馬走廊經濟特區 NCER=399億4000萬令吉
---東海岸走廊經濟特區ECER=283億2000萬令吉
---沙巴發展走廊經濟特區SDC=320億1000萬令吉
---砂勞越州再生能源走廊特區SCORE=876億1000萬令吉
>>>五大經濟走廊特區共有197項計劃
依斯干達經濟特區18項計劃
北馬經濟走廊特區的30項計劃
東海岸經濟走廊特區86項計劃
沙巴發展走廊經濟特區的54項計劃
砂勞越州再生能源走廊特區的9項計劃,
---經濟特區國內生產總值
2030年SCORE國內生產總值1180億馬幣
2025年NCER国内生产总值2141亿马币



2028年---砂勞越州再生能源走廊特區Sarawak Corridorof Renewable Energy,簡稱SCORE
---走廊占地約7萬平方公里,從泗里街的丹絨瑪尼至民都魯詩美拉瑤沿海一帶約320公里的地段,並延伸至周圍地區與腹地,總人口約60萬7,800名。
---5項發展策略
(一)促進工業發展,特別是丹絨瑪尼(南部)、沐膠(中部)及詩美拉瑤(北部)之發展;
(二)提升工業運輸與通訊基礎設施,並有系統開發內陸地區;
(三)加速能源供應,如水力發電及煤炭蘊藏區;
(四)加速人力資源發展;
(五)發展旅遊業,特別是水力發電站上游的湖泊山區及發展該走廊北部海岸景色。
---10項工業,包括石油基礎工業、煉鋁業、鋼鐵基礎工業、玻璃工業、旅遊業、油棕業、伐木業、畜牧業、漁業、海產養殖業為首要開發工業
---預計至2030年砂勞越州再生能源走廊可吸引逾3340億馬幣之投資,其中工業投資占2000億馬幣、能源業占670億馬幣、基礎設施占610億馬幣、人力資源及教育設施各占30億馬幣
---2030年砂勞越州國內生產總值1180億馬幣
2028年---北馬走廊經濟特區 NCER
---发展为物流、食品加工及旅游中心
---北部经济走廊涵盖四个州,分别为玻璃市、家乡吉打、槟城、霹雳。
---这四个地区拥有240万公顷的土地,不过只有429万人口,地广人稀。
---在18年内投入1770亿马币(约合506亿美元)的资金,试图在2025年时让贫困的北部地区繁荣起来,缩小北部四州(主要是收入低微的农民)与全国的人均收入差距。
---北部地区 2/3的人民年均收入低于2000马元。
---2005年NCER国内生产总值527亿马币
---2025年NCER国内生产总值2141亿马币
2025年---沙巴發展走廊經濟特區SDC
---SDC國內生産總值達到632億林吉特,每人平均收入達到14800林吉特。
---沙巴發展走廊分為西部、中部和東部三大區域,主要發展農業、制造業和服務業三大領域,以發展高附加值産品、實現經濟發展和分配的均衡、確保可持續發展為三大目標。
2025年---Iskandar Malaysia經濟特區
---柔南Iskandar Malaysia人均所得3萬1000美元。
---把現有的城鎮、海港和機場與新建設整合,建造主題樂園、國際學校、旅館、醫院與商業區
---Iskandar Malaysia经济特区与新加坡、印尼巴淡岛经济开发区构成极具经济互补性的成长三角区
---Iskandar Malaysia经济特区优惠政策框架
一是公司所得税减免。符合条件的企业,以及战略性投资项目,经核准后可免缴5-10年的企业所得税,或在5年内减免70%的法定收入所得税;
二是投资税赋减免。符合条件的企业和项目,其用于固定资产投资额的60%可在5年内抵消其应缴纳所得税的70%,或其合格资本支出的60%可在5年内从其所得税中扣除;
三是再投资税赋减免。对于符合条件的企业,其再投资额的60%可抵消其应缴纳所得税的70%,优惠期限15年或更长;
四是进口税、销售税和国产税减免;
五是在依斯干达经济特区投资创意行业、教育、物流、财务咨询和顾问、旅游以及医疗保健等六大服务领域的公司,将不受马来西亚新经济政策的约束,不必保留30%的股份给马来人,不受外资条例约束,能够自由在全球集资,可以在经济特区内无限制的聘请国外员工,并享有免缴公司税及预扣所得税的优惠,为期10年
2025年---东海岸经济特区ECER
---东海岸经济特区范围涵盖登嘉楼至彭亨州
---主要发展石油、天然气等石化产品。
---将吸引900亿马币的资金,创造22万个就业机会。



2009.7.8---首相署副部長拿督迪溫馬尼指出,北馬走廊經濟特區(NCER)當局通過各項促銷計劃及獎掖配套,成功吸引83億6000萬令吉的國內外投資,並在這個區提供許多就業機會
2006.7.30---馬來西亞依斯干達成立
---馬來西亞依斯干達將開發比新加坡面積約3倍(2,217平方公里)更大的地區,這些底地區包括了新山市、笨珍縣,士乃,巴西古當以及柔佛新行政中心努沙再也。這計劃將發展整個新山市。五個地方規劃機構在覆蓋的區域擁有完全的管轄權利,這五個相關機構包括了新山市議會(Majlis Bandaraya Johor Bahru)、新山中部地方議會(Majlis Perbandaran Johor Bahru Tengah)、巴西古當地方議會(Majlis Perbandaran Pasir Gudang)、古來地方議會(Majlis Perbandaran Kulai)以及笨珍縣議會(Majlis Daerah Pontian)。
---根據該計劃,5個「旗艦區」的221,634.1公頃(2,216.3平方公里)已被確定為發展重點。其中的4個旗艦區位於「努沙再也- 新山- 巴西古當別經濟走廊」(SEC)中。這經濟走廊 中包括了丹絨伯勒巴斯港口、巴西古當港口與丹絨浪塞港口以及努沙再也為優先發展的重點。
新山市為旗艦A區,這包括重點發展新山是新的金融區、中央商務區、金海灣河濱城市、地不佬以及新柔長堤的周邊。
努沙再也為旗艦B區,這包括發展努沙再也成為柔佛新的行政中心、醫療中心、教育中心、一個國際化的渡假勝地、一個物流產業的集中地以及豪華的別墅勝地。
柔佛西部為旗艦C區,這包括發展丹絨伯勒巴斯港口(PTP)。
---馬來西亞依斯干達(IM),早期稱為柔南經濟特區(Wilayah Pembangunan Iskandar, WPI),過後在易名依斯干達經濟特區 (ISKANDAR DEVELOPMENT REGION),最後正式確定命名馬來西亞依斯干達。這項計劃是馬來西亞政府於2006年宣布要在柔佛州南部區域推行的一項大型經濟發展計劃。與新加坡,被形容為如深圳之於香港的經濟特區。
---這發展項目是由依斯干達區域發展局(IRDA)所管理的,以已駕崩的柔佛蘇丹依斯干達的名字來命名這計劃

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2028年---馬來西亞砂勞越州再生能源走廊特區Sarawak Corridorof Renewable Energy,簡稱SCORE
---走廊占地約7萬平方公里,從泗里街的丹絨瑪尼至民都魯詩美拉瑤沿海一帶約320公里的地段,並延伸至周圍地區與腹地,總人口約60萬7,800名。
---5項發展策略
(一)促進工業發展,特別是丹絨瑪尼(南部)、沐膠(中部)及詩美拉瑤(北部)之發展;
(二)提升工業運輸與通訊基礎設施,並有系統開發內陸地區;
(三)加速能源供應,如水力發電及煤炭蘊藏區;
(四)加速人力資源發展;
(五)發展旅遊業,特別是水力發電站上游的湖泊山區及發展該走廊北部海岸景色。
---10項工業,包括石油基礎工業、煉鋁業、鋼鐵基礎工業、玻璃工業、旅遊業、油棕業、伐木業、畜牧業、漁業、海產養殖業為首要開發工業
---預計至2030年砂勞越州再生能源走廊可吸引逾3340億馬幣之投資,其中工業投資占2000億馬幣、能源業占670億馬幣、基礎設施占610億馬幣、人力資源及教育設施各占30億馬幣
---2030年砂勞越州國內生產總值1180億馬幣
2028年---馬來西亞北馬走廊經濟特區 NCER
---发展为物流、食品加工及旅游中心
---北部经济走廊涵盖四个州,分别为玻璃市、家乡吉打、槟城、霹雳。
---这四个地区拥有240万公顷的土地,不过只有429万人口,地广人稀。
---在18年内投入1770亿马币(约合506亿美元)的资金,试图在2025年时让贫困的北部地区繁荣起来,缩小北部四州(主要是收入低微的农民)与全国的人均收入差距。
---北部地区 2/3的人民年均收入低于2000马元。
---2005年NCER国内生产总值527亿马币
---2025年NCER国内生产总值2141亿马币
2025年---馬來西亞沙巴發展走廊經濟特區SDC
---SDC國內生産總值達到632億林吉特,每人平均收入達到14800林吉特。
---沙巴發展走廊分為西部、中部和東部三大區域,主要發展農業、制造業和服務業三大領域,以發展高附加值産品、實現經濟發展和分配的均衡、確保可持續發展為三大目標。
2025年---馬來西亞Iskandar Malaysia經濟特區
---柔南Iskandar Malaysia人均所得3萬1000美元。
---把現有的城鎮、海港和機場與新建設整合,建造主題樂園、國際學校、旅館、醫院與商業區
---Iskandar Malaysia经济特区与新加坡、印尼巴淡岛经济开发区构成极具经济互补性的成长三角区
---Iskandar Malaysia经济特区优惠政策框架
一是公司所得税减免。符合条件的企业,以及战略性投资项目,经核准后可免缴5-10年的企业所得税,或在5年内减免70%的法定收入所得税;
二是投资税赋减免。符合条件的企业和项目,其用于固定资产投资额的60%可在5年内抵消其应缴纳所得税的70%,或其合格资本支出的60%可在5年内从其所得税中扣除;
三是再投资税赋减免。对于符合条件的企业,其再投资额的60%可抵消其应缴纳所得税的70%,优惠期限15年或更长;
四是进口税、销售税和国产税减免;
五是在依斯干达经济特区投资创意行业、教育、物流、财务咨询和顾问、旅游以及医疗保健等六大服务领域的公司,将不受马来西亚新经济政策的约束,不必保留30%的股份给马来人,不受外资条例约束,能够自由在全球集资,可以在经济特区内无限制的聘请国外员工,并享有免缴公司税及预扣所得税的优惠,为期10年
2025年---馬來西亞东海岸经济特区ECER
---东海岸经济特区范围涵盖登嘉楼至彭亨州
---主要发展石油、天然气等石化产品。
---将吸引900亿马币的资金,创造22万个就业机会。

2025年---中國横琴发展成连通港澳区域的开放岛
---2020年,人口规模28万人,人均GDP20万元人民币
---2015年,人口规模12万人,人均GDP12万元人民币
2020年---中國天津空港经济区
---临空产业区=发展空港运输、航空科技、物流加工、商贸会展
---“一城五区”的功能布局
一是以滨海机场为主体的飞行保障区,提供航空货运、飞机维修、配餐等服务
二是以空港物流区为主体的机场物流区,将大力发展航空物流,主要是高附加值货物的分拨配送,特别是依托空港保税物流中心向腹地提供保税服务
三是以民航学院为主体的空港教学科研区,在民航信息、呼叫等方面开展服务
四是以空港加工区为主体的空港产业区,保税区已经着手调整加工区的发展思路,适度发展先进制造业,大力发展总部经济,积极发展会展服务业,形成空港产业的核心聚集区
五是以东丽湖为主体的空港旅游休闲区,保税区将在空港加工区规划建设天津市大型会展中心和商贸设施,与周边区域共同促进旅游业发展。
天津积极规划建设航空城
2020年---中國北京空港经济区
---顺义区以首都机场为核心
---六大功能=空港工业区、天竺出口加工区、空港物流基地、林河工业区、北京汽车生产基地、国门商务区
---三大主导产业=航空类产业、现代服务业、高科技制造业
2020年---中國重庆空港经济区
---面积175平方公里,投资300亿人民幣 ,产值200亿人民幣
---规划建设四大区域:
一、空港工业园区,形成以汽摩为龙头的高新技术产业和先进加工制造业基地
二、航空服务区,在重庆机场控制区内,发展壮大航空业,创建全国枢纽机场
三、空港物流园区,发展现代物流业和重型市场,力争建成西南地区一流的物流中心
四、空港高尚住宅区,为高收入阶层创造优美的居住环境;布局无污染、用水量少的工业;建成北部农副产品集散基地,以及渝邻路生态旅游农业带
2020年---中國广州空港经济区
---面积2600平方公里 ,占廣州市域面積35%
---广州白云区、花都区、萝岗区、从化区
---形成知識城、白雲新城、科技城和生態城四個功能區
---空港經濟核心區(空港新城)
>>面積390平方公里,占廣州市域面積5%
>>東至京珠高速公路、南至北二環高速公路、西至廣清高速公路、北至北三環高速公路
2020年---中國上海國際金融中心=上海免税自由港+三港三区
---三港 :高桥港、浦东国际机场空港、洋山港
---三区 :外高桥保税区、浦东机场综合保税区、洋山保税区
2020年---中國廣佛同城化發展規劃
總體發展空間格局:“一核強化、兩脊兩帶攜領、多極帶動”
一核:廣佛都市圈核心;
兩脊:南北發展脊+東西發展脊
南北發展脊=花都─白雲─廣州中心城區─南海─番禺─順德─南沙
東西發展脊
=增城南部─蘿崗─黃埔─廣州中心城區─佛山中心組團─三水─肇慶中心城區
兩帶:北部發展帶+南部發展帶
北部發展帶=街口─新華─西南─端州一帶構成
南部發展帶=龍穴島─黃閣─大崗─容桂─九江─荷城
產業發展空間格局:“一心五區”
一心:廣州中心城區、佛山中心組團以及番禺市橋、廣州新客站周邊地區組成的廣佛現代服務業發展核心區;
五區:東部創新產業發展區、北部空港經濟發展區、西部現代制造發展區、南部臨港產業發展區、北部和西南部生態休閒旅游區
交通發展空間格局:三港雙網
三港=空港、海港、信息港
雙網=軌道交通網、高快速路網
生態安全空間格局:“兩核、三區、六廊、多塊”
兩核=白雲山-帽峰山、西樵山區域生態“綠核”
三區=北部山地生態屏障區、南部農田濕地生態屏障區、西部山地生態屏障區
六廊=流溪河-北江、珠江廣州段、增江─東江、西江、順德水道-沙灣水道、北二環高速等六條區域性生態廊道
多塊=零散分布的較大綠地

2020年---中國平潭综合实验区发展目标
---2016-2020年,平潭實驗區將率先建立科學發展的體制機制
---2010年~2015年:平潭實驗區的地區生產總值年均增速和城鄉居民收入超過全省平均水準,新興城市框架初步形成
---平潭人口300萬人 ,台北市人口262萬人
---平潭面积371平方公里 ,台北市面积271平方公里 ,新加坡面積692平方公里
---平潭成為中國第一個「兩岸共建共管試點特區」
2015年---兩廊一圈=經濟走廊和北部灣經濟圈
---“昆明-老 街-河內-海防-廣寧
---“南寧-諒山-河內-海防-廣寧
---泛北部灣城市群=昆明、南寧、貴陽、桂林、海口、北海
2015年---泛亞鐵路+媚公河經濟圈+兩廊一圈+南新經濟走廊

2009.12.31---中越推進“紅河—老街經濟合作區”
---第一階段由中國河口口岸2.58平方公裡北山片區與越南老街2.5平方公裡的金城商貿區共建“中越紅河商貿區”,商貿區面積共計5.35平方公裡,由中越紅河公路大橋連接。區域內實行“兩國一區,封閉運作,境內關外、自由貿易”的管理模式
---第二階段以中國河口口岸北山片區和紅河工業園區,越南老街口岸經濟區、騰龍工業區、貴沙礦區共建“中國紅河—越南老街跨境經濟合作區”,合計規劃面積129.85平方公裡
---越南老街省建設老街口岸經濟區(50公頃)、金城片區(152公頃)、北沿海出口加工區(304公頃)和東新坡工業區(146公頃)
--- 越南老街 :人口56萬 ,面積8057平方公里

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2099---
人的大腦已完全逆向工程和各方面的運作,這是理解。
Natural human thinking possesses no advantages over computer minds.
沒有人的思維具有天然優勢,通過計算機的頭腦。
Machines have attained equal legal status with humans.
機器已經達到與人類平等的法律地位。
Humans and machines merge together in the physical and mental realms.
人類與機器融合在一起,在身體和精神境界。 Cybernetic brain implants enable humans to fuse their minds with AI's.
控制論使人類大腦植入他們的思想融合與 AI的。
In consequence, clear distinctions between humans and machines no longer exist.
結果,明確區分人與機器之間不再存在。
Most conscious beings lack a permanent physical form.
大多數人缺乏自覺的,永久性的物理形式。
The vast majority of the Earth's sentient beings are AI's that exist entirely as thinking computer programs capable of instantly moving from one computer to another across the Internet (or whatever equivalent exists in 2099).
絕大多數地球眾生認可機構的存在完全是思維的計算機程序能夠立即從一台計算機移動到另一個通過互聯網(或其他等值存在於 2099年)。
These computer-based beings are capable of manifesting themselves at will in the physical world by creating or taking over robotic bodies, with individual AI's also being capable of controlling multiple bodies at once.
這些電腦為基礎的人都能夠體現自己的意願在物質世界中建立或接管機器人機構與個別認可機構的能力也被多個機構控制在一次。
Individual beings merge and separate constantly, making it impossible to determine how many “people” there are on Earth.
個別人不斷合併和分離,因此無法確定有多少“人”,也有地球上。
This new plasticity of consciousness and ability for beings to join minds seriously alters the nature of self-identity.
這種新的意識和能力可塑性對人加入改變了性質嚴重的頭腦自我認同。
The majority of interpersonal interactions occur in virtual environments.
大部分發生在人際交往的虛擬環境。
Actually having two people physically meet in the real world to have a conversation or transact business without any technological interference is very rare.
其實有兩個人身體滿足在現實世界中有一個對話或者辦理業務沒有任何技術干擾非常罕見的。
Organic human beings are a small minority of the intelligent life forms on Earth.
人類是一個有機少數的智能生命形式在地球上。
Even among the remaining Homo sapiens , the use of computerized implants that heavily augment normal abilities is ubiquitous and accepted as normal.
即使在剩下的智人 ,使用的電腦植入正常的大量增加和接受能力是無處不正常。
The small fraction of humans who opt to remain "natural" and unmodified effectively exist on a different plane of consciousness from everyone else, and thus find it impossible to fully interact with AI's and highly modified humans.
人類的一小部分選擇留誰“自然”和未修改有效地存在於不同的平面,從別人的意識,從而發現它不可能完全交互與 AI的和高度修改人類。
"Natural" humans are protected from extermination.
“自然”保護人類滅絕。
In spite of their shortcomings and frailties, humans are respected by AI's for giving rise to the machines.
儘管他們的缺點和弱點,人類是由AI尊重的是引發的機器。
Since knowledge and skills can be instantly downloaded and comprehended by most intelligent beings, the process of learning is compressed into an instantaneous affair instead of the years-long struggle normal humans experience.
由於知識和技能,可以即時下載和理解的最聰明的人,因此,學習過程被壓縮到一個瞬間的事情,而不是年之久的鬥爭正常人類的經驗。
Free from this time-consuming burden, AI's now focus their energies on making new discoveries and contributions.
擺脫這種費時的負擔,大赦國際的現在集中精力於新的發現和貢獻。
AI's are capable of dividing their attention and energies in countless directions, allowing one being to manage a multitude of endeavors simultaneously.
認可機構有能力劃分他們的注意力和精力,在無數的方向,使一個被來管理眾多的努力同時進行。
Femtoengineering (engineering on the scale of one thousandth of a trillionth of a meter) might be possible. Femtoengineering
(工程上規模的千分之一的萬億分之一米)是可能的。
AI's communicate via a shared electronic language.
大赦國際的通信通過共享的電子語言。
Artwork and music created by machines encompasses areas of the light spectrum and frequencies of sounds that normal humans cannot perceive.
藝術作品和音樂領域創造的機器包含的光頻譜和頻率的聲音,正常人類無法感知。
Money has deflated in value.
金錢的價值洩氣。
Some humans at least as old as the Baby Boomers are still alive and well.
有些人不老,至少在嬰兒潮仍然健在。
Computer viruses are a major threat since most intelligent beings are software-based.
計算機病毒是一個主要的威脅,因為人類是最聰明的軟件為基礎。
AI's frequently make "backup copies" of themselves, guaranteeing a sort of immortality should the original AI be killed.
認可機構的經常使“備份”自己,保證排序不朽應原人工智能被殺死。
The concept of "life expectancy" has become irrelevant to humans and machines thanks to medical immortality and advanced computers.
這個概念的“壽命”已成為人類與機器無關,由於醫療永生和先進的計算機。
The pace of technological change continues to accelerate as the 22nd century nears.
技術變革的步伐不斷加快的22世紀接近。


2072---
Picoengineering (技術對規模萬億分之一米)成為現實

2070---
計算機通過了圖靈測試 ,成為第一個真正的人工智能

2050---
電話帶來的三維全息圖像的兩個人。
By 2020, there will be a new World government .
到2020年,將會有一個新的世界政府 。
2049---
食物是通常是“組裝”的納米機器。
This food is externally indistinguishable from "natural" food, but it can be made more wholesome since production can be controlled at the molecular level.
這種食品是從外部無法區分“天然”食品,但它可以變得更健康,因為生產,可控制在分子水平上。
This technology decouples food production from climate conditions and the availability of natural resources.
該技術分離了糧食生產的氣候條件和天然資源的可用性。
The distinction between virtual reality and "real" reality becomes confounded as foglets come into common use, allowing immediate assembly or disassembly of all sorts of physical objects.
虛擬現實之間的區別和“真實”的現實變得混淆為foglets開始普遍使用,使得即時組裝或拆卸的各類實物

2045---
1000美元買了一億次的計算機更聰明比每個人的總和。
This means that average and even low-end computers are vastly smarter than even highly intelligent, unenhanced humans.
這意味著,平均,甚至低端電腦更聰明,甚至比有很大的高度智能化,平掃人類。
The technological singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth.
該技術奇點發生的人工智能超過人類的最聰明,最有能力的生命形式在地球上。
Technological development is taken over by the machines, who can think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans cannot even comprehend what is going on.
技術開發是接管的機器,誰又能想到,行為和溝通得非常快,甚至不能正常人類理解是怎麼回事。
The machines enter into a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, with each new generation of AIs appearing faster and faster.
機器進入“失控反應”自我改進週期,每一代新的認可機構出現得越來越快。
From this point onwards, technological advancement is explosive, under the control of the machines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted (hence the term "Singularity").
從這時開始,技術進步是爆炸性的,在控制的機器,因而不能準確地預測(因此稱為“奇點”)。
The Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history.
奇點是一個極其混亂,世界永遠改變事件的過程中改變了人類的歷史。
The extermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely (though not impossible) because sharp distinctions between man and machine will no longer exist thanks to the existence of cybernetically enhanced humans and uploaded humans.
滅絕人類的暴力機器是不可能的(雖然不是不可能),因為尖銳的人與機器之間的區別將不復存在感謝存在cybernetically增強人類和上傳的人類。



2040---
人體 3.0是這十年期間逐步實施。
It lacks a fixed, corporeal form and can alter its shape and external appearance at will via foglet-like nanotechnology (similar to the T-1000 from Terminator 2 ).
它沒有一個固定的,有形的形式,可以改變它的形狀和外觀將通過foglet在類似納米技術(類似的T -
1000的終結者2 )。
People spend most of their time in full-immersion virtual reality (Kurzweil has cited The Matrix as a good example of what the advanced virtual worlds will be like, without the dystopian twist).
人們花費大部分的時間在全沉浸虛擬現實(庫茲威爾列舉的矩陣是一個很好的例子,什麼先進的虛擬世界將會是什麼樣子,但無反烏托邦捻)。
Foglets are in use. Foglets都在使用

2030---
心靈上載成為可能。
Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain and could interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals.
納米機器可直接插入大腦和能夠與腦細胞完全控制輸入和輸出信號。
As a result, truly full-immersion virtual reality could be generated without the need for any external equipment.
因此,真正的全浸入式虛擬現實可產生,而不需要任何外部設備。
Afferent nerve pathways could be blocked, totally canceling out the "real" world and leaving the user with only the desired virtual experience.
傳入神經通路可能被封鎖,完全取消了“真實”世界,讓使用者只需要的虛擬體驗。
Brain nanobots could also elicit emotional responses from users.
腦納米機器人也可以由用戶引起的情緒反應。
Using brain nanobots, recorded or real-time brain transmissions of a person's daily life known as "experience beamers" will be available for other people to remotely experience.
使用納米機器人的大腦,記錄或實時傳送一個人大腦的日常生活被稱為“經驗 beamers”將可用於其他人遠程經驗。
This is very similar to how the characters in Being John Malkovich were able to enter the mind of Malkovich and see the world through his eyes.
這是非常相似的人物如何在被約翰馬爾科維奇能夠進入心靈的馬爾科維奇,看到了世界,通過他的眼睛。
Recreational uses aside, nanomachines in peoples' brains will allow them to greatly expand their cognitive, memory and sensory capabilities, to directly interface with computers, and to "telepathically" communicate with other, similarly augmented humans via wireless networks.
康樂用途外,納米機器在人們的大腦使他們能夠極大地擴大他們的認知,記憶和感官能力,直接連接電腦,並以“心靈感應”與其他的,同樣增加人類通過無線網絡。
The same nanotechnology should also allow people to alter the neural connections within their brains, changing the underlying basis for the person's intelligence, memories and personality.
納米技術同樣也應該讓人們改變他們的大腦內的神經連接,改變了基本的依據人的智力,記憶和個性。
Human body 2.0 (as Kurzweil calls it) is incrementally accumulated into this decade.
人體 2.0(如庫茲威爾調用它)是逐步累積到這個十年。
It consists of a nanotechnological system of nourishment and circulation—obsolescing many internal organs—and an improved skeleton.
它由一個納米技術系統的營養和環流 obsolescing許多內部器官,骨骼和改進。


2029---
1000澳元的個人電腦更強大 1000倍比人類大腦。
The vast majority of computation is done by computers and not by human brains.
絕大多數是通過電腦計算,而不是由人的大腦。
Further progress has been made in understanding the secrets of the human brain
.已取得進一步的進展在理解人類大腦的秘密。
Hundreds of distinct sub-regions with specialized functions have been identified.
數百個不同的次區域和專業性的職能也已確定。
Some of the algorithms that code for development of these regions have been deciphered and incorporated into neural net computers.
一些算法,代碼開發這些地區已被破譯,並將其納入神經網絡計算機。
Massively parallel neural nets, which are constructed through reverse-engineering the human brain, are in common use.
大規模並行神經網絡,通過反向而建造工程的人腦,是在共同使用。
The eyeglasses and headphones that used to deliver virtual reality are now obsolete thanks to computer implants that go into the eyes and ears.
眼鏡和耳機,用來提供虛擬現實,現在已經過時由於植入的計算機進入眼睛和耳朵。
The implants are either permanent or removable.
種植體是永久或拆除。
They allow direct interface with computers, communications and Internet-based applications.
他們允許直接接口與計算機,通信和互聯網的應用程序。
The implants are also capable of recording what the user sees and hears.
植入物也能記錄用戶所看到和聽到的東西。
Computer implants designed for direct connection to the brain are also available.
植入電腦設計,可直接連接到大腦也可提供。
They are capable of augmenting natural senses and of enhancing higher brain functions like memory, learning speed and overall intelligence
.它們能夠充實和加強自然感官高級腦功能,如記憶,學習速度和總體的情報。
Computers are now capable of learning and creating new knowledge entirely on their own and with no human help.
計算機現在能夠學習和創造新知識,完全靠自己和沒有人類的幫助。
By scanning the enormous content of the Internet, some computers "know" literally every single piece of public information (every scientific discovery, every book and movie, every public statement, etc.) generated by human beings.
通過掃描內容龐大的互聯網,某些計算機“認識”的字面每一塊公共信息(每一個科學發現,每本書和電影,每一個公開聲明等)所產生的人類。
Direct brain implants allow users to enter full-immersion virtual reality—with complete sensory stimulation—without any external equipment.
大腦植入允許用戶直接進入全沉浸虛擬現實與完整的感官刺激而無需任何外部設備。
People can have their minds in a totally different place at any moment.
人們可以有自己的頭腦在一個完全不同的地方在任何時刻。
This technology is in widespread use.
這項技術是廣泛使用。
Most communication occurs between humans and machines as opposed to human-to-human.
大多數通信人類與機器之間發生,而不是人對人。
The manufacturing, agricultural and transportation sectors of the economy are almost entirely automated and employ very few humans.
在製造業,農業和交通運輸行業的經濟幾乎完全自動化,並聘請極少數人。
Across the world, poverty, war and disease are almost nonexistent thanks to technology alleviating want.
在世界各地,貧窮,戰爭和疾病幾乎不存在由於技術減輕想要的。
The rise of Artificial Intelligence creates a real " robot rights " movement, and there is open, public debate over what sorts of civil rights and legal protections machines should have.
人工智能的興起創造了真正的“ 機器人權 “運動,並有公開,公開辯論是什麼種類的公民權利和法律保護的機器應該有。
The existence of humans with heavy levels of cybernetic augmentation and of larger numbers of other people with less extreme cybernetic implants lead to further arguments over what constitutes a "human being.
"人類的存在與控制論增強重水平和較大數量的其他人與控制論不那麼極端的植入導致進一步的爭論,什麼是“人”。
Although computers routinely pass the Turing Test, controversy still persists over whether machines are as intelligent as humans in all areas.
雖然電腦經常通過圖靈測試,但爭議仍堅持對機器能否為人類的聰明,在所有領域。
Artificial Intelligences claim to be conscious and openly petition for recognition of the fact.
人工智能聲稱自己是有意識的請願書,公開承認這一事實。
Most people admit and accept this new truth.
大多數人承認和接受這一新的真理。
Reverse engineering of the human brain completed
逆向工程的人腦完成
Non-biological intelligence combines the subtlety and pattern recognition strength of human intelligence, with the speed, memory, and knowledge sharing of machine intelligence
非生物智能結合的微妙和模式識別人類智慧的力量,與速度,內存和知識共享情報機
Non-biological intelligence will continue to grow exponentially whereas biological intelligence is effectively fixed
非生物智能將繼續成倍增長,而實際上是固定的生物智能

2025---
最可能亮相的一年,先進的納米技術。
Some military UAV 's and land vehicles will be 100% computer-controlled.
一些軍事無人機的和陸地車輛將100%由電腦控制。


2020---
PC是能夠通過訪問回答查詢的信息通過無線方式上網
一台個人電腦將具有相同的處理能力作為一個人的大腦
計算機小於 100納米的大小將成為可能。
As one of their first practical applications, nanomachines are used for medical purposes.
他們第一次作為一個實際應用, 納米機器用於醫療用途。
Highly advanced medical nanobots will perform detailed brainscans on live patients
.高度先進的醫療納米機器人將進行詳細的brainscans直播病人。
Accurate computer simulations of the entire human brain will exist due to these hyperaccurate brainscans, and the workings of the brain will be understood.
準確的計算機模擬整個人類大腦會存在由於這些 hyperaccurate brainscans和運作的大腦會被理解。
Nanobots capable of entering the bloodstream to "feed" cells and extract waste will exist (though not necessarily be in wide use) by the end of this decade.
納米機器人能夠進入血液的“飼料”細胞並提取廢物會存在(雖然不一定是廣泛使用的)由這個十年結束。 They will make the normal mode of human food consumption obsolete.
他們將正常人類食物消費模式已經過時。
By the late 2020s, nanotech-based manufacturing will be in widespread use, radically altering the economy as all sorts of products can suddenly be produced for a fraction of their traditional-manufacture costs.
21世紀 20年代末到,納米技術為基礎的製造業將被廣泛使用,從根本上改變經濟的各種產品可以突然產生了一小部分,他們的傳統,製造成本。
The true cost of any product is now the amount it takes to download the design schematics.
真正的成本是目前任何產品所花費下載設計原理圖。
By the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from real reality
.到本世紀後期,虛擬現實將是如此之高品質,這將是無法區分真正的現實。
The threat posed by genetically engineered pathogens permanently dissipates by the end of this decade as medical nanobots—infinitely more durable, intelligent and capable than any microorganism—become sufficiently advanced
.所構成的威脅遺傳工程病原體永久消失在年底這十年醫療納米機器人,無限更耐用,智能,有能力比任何微生物,變得十分先進。
A computer passes the Turing test by the last year of the decade (2029), meaning that it is a Strong AI and can think like a human (though the first AI is likely to be the equivalent of a very stupid human).
計算機通過了圖靈測試由去年的十年(2029),這意味著它是一個強大的人工智能 ,可以像人類一樣思考(雖然是第一次禽流感可能是相當於一個非常愚蠢的人)。
This first AI is built around a computer simulation of a human brain, which was made possible by previous, nanotech-guided brainscanning.
這首先是建立在人工智能的計算機模擬人腦,它之所以成為可能,由以前的,納米技術引導 brainscanning

2019---
1000澳元的個人電腦已經成為許多原始動力作為人類大腦。
The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.
在總結權力,所有計算機計算相當於總智力的人類。
Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).
嵌入式計算機是無處不在的環境(內部的家具,珠寶,牆壁,衣服等)。
People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display)
.人們體驗 3 - D虛擬現實眼鏡,隱形眼鏡,通過那束圖像直接向他們的視網膜(視網膜顯示)。
Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.
加上聽覺源(耳機),用戶可以遠程與人溝通和訪問互聯網
These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways.
這些特殊的眼鏡,隱形眼鏡可以提供“增強現實”和“虛擬現實”三種不同的方式。
First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment regardless of the user's perspective or orientation.
首先,他們可以計劃“抬頭顯示屏”(HUDs)跨用戶的視野,疊加圖像,留在地方,不論在環境中的用戶的角度或方向。
Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places.
虛擬物體或人可呈現在固定地點的眼鏡,因此當用戶的眼睛看別處,對象似乎留在自己的地方。
Third, the devices could block out the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual reality environment.
第三,這些設備可以屏蔽掉這些“現實”世界完全和充分沉浸用戶在虛擬現實環境。
People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards.
人們與他們的電腦通過雙向語音和手勢,而不是與鍵盤。
Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize.
此外,大多數這種相互作用是通過計算機具有不同個性的助手,用戶可以選擇或定制。
Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.
使用電子計算機處理從而成為越來越像處理一個人。
Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.
大多數商業交易或信息的查詢涉及處理一個模擬人。
Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor.
大多數人擁有多台電腦,雖然這個概念,什麼是“電腦”是具有相當大的變化:不再局限於電腦在設計上與筆記本電腦或CPU包含在一個大盒子連接到一個監視器。
Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
相反,設備與計算機的功能來在各種意想不到的形狀和大小。
Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.
電纜連接計算機和外圍設備幾乎完全消失。
Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.
旋轉的計算機硬盤驅動器已不再使用。
Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.
三維晶格納米管是主要的計算襯底。
Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.
大規模並行神經網絡和遺傳算法在廣泛使用。
Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better.
破壞性的大腦進行掃描和非侵入大腦掃描使科學家能夠更好地理解大腦。
The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets
.的算法,使遺傳密碼相對較小的大腦構​​造一個更複雜的器官被轉入神經網絡計算機。
Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.
針頭大小的相機到處都是。
Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream.
納米技術是更強大,並在使用專門的應用程序,但它尚未使它成為主流。
"Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing. “Nanoengineered
機”開始用於生產。
Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents.
薄,重量輕,手持式顯示器,具有很高的決議是首選方法用於查看文件。
The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly
.上述電腦眼鏡和隱形眼鏡也用於同樣的目的,所有無線下載的信息。
Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
計算機使紙質圖書和文件,幾乎完全過時。
Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers.
大多數學習是通過智能,自適應課件提交的電腦模擬教師。
In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors.
在學習過程中,人類的成年人填補顧問和導師的角色,而不是學術導師。
These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely
.這些助理往往沒有親臨現場,並幫助學生遠程。
Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.
學生還共同學習和社交活動,儘管這往往是通過計算機遠程完成。
All students have access to computers.
所有的學生都使用電腦。
Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
最大多數人的工作人員花費大量的時間學習新的技能和知識。
Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech.
盲人戴上特製的眼鏡解釋現實世界中他們通過演講。
Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.
有識之士也可以使用這些眼鏡的放大自己的能力。
Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.
視網膜和神經植入物也存在,但在有限的使用,因為它們是那麼有用。
Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations.
聾人使用特殊眼鏡,語音轉換成文字或符號,並把圖像或音樂觸覺。
Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.植入人工耳蝸等也廣泛使用。
People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.
脊髓損傷的人可以走,爬上步驟使用計算機控制的神經刺激和外骨骼機器人步行者。
Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants.
電腦裡也發現一些人類在控制論的形式植入。
These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (ie - Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).
這是最常用的殘疾人恢復正常的身體機能(即 - 視網膜植入物允許盲人看到和脊柱植入物,加上機械腿走路讓癱瘓)。
Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.
語言翻譯機高得多的品質,並在談話中經常使用。
Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition , speech synthesis) exist
有效的語言技術(自然語言處理, 語音識別 ,語音合成)的存在
Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by wearable or implanted computers.
進入無線和互聯網是完全由可穿戴或植入​​電腦。
People are able to wirelessly access the Internet at all times from almost anywhere
人們能夠以無線方式接入互聯網幾乎在任何時候任何地方
Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (ie--tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience.
提供的設備在皮膚表面感覺他們的用戶(即 - 緊體服和手套),也有時用於虛擬現實的經驗來完成。 "Virtual sex"--in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer—becomes a reality.
“虛擬性” - 中,兩個人能夠互相發生性關係,通過虛擬現實,或在其中一人可以有性行為以“模擬”的合作夥伴,只存在於一個電腦成為現實。
Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a VR booth.
正如視覺和聽覺的虛擬現實已經走向成熟, 觸覺技術已完全成熟,是完全令人信服,但要求用戶輸入一個虛擬現實的展位。
It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations.
它通常用於計算機和遠程醫療檢查性別。 It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.
這是首選,因為它是性介質安全,提高了經驗。
Worldwide economic growth has continued.
世界經濟增長仍在繼續。 There has not been a global economic collapse.
有沒有一個全球性的經濟崩潰。
The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.
絕大多數的企業之間發生相互作用的人類和模擬零售商之間,或一個人的虛擬個人助理和模擬零售商。
Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.
家用機器人是無處不在,可靠。
Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted.
電腦所做的大部分車輛駕駛 - 人類實際上禁止在公路上駕駛無輔助。
Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly.
此外,當人類做接管輪,機載計算機系統不斷監視他們的行動,並採取控制每當人類驅動硬拼。 As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.因此,很少有交通意外。
Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
大多數道路現在有自動駕駛系統,網絡監控和通訊設備,使電腦控制汽車安全地瀏覽。
Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist.
個人飛行器的原型使用microflaps存在。 They are also primarily computer-controlled.
他們也主要由電腦控制。
Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners.
人類開始有了深厚的關係與自動化人物,佔據一定的優勢對人類的夥伴。
The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights
.一些計算機的深度個性讓某些人,他們應該給予更多的權利。
While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.
雖然越來越多的人相信,他們的計算機和模擬性格與他們交往的一點是聰明的人級別意識,專家們排除任何的可能性,可以通過圖靈測試。
Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.
人類與機器人關係開始變得為模擬人物更有說服力。
Interaction with virtual personalities becomes a primary interface
與虛擬人物互動成為主接口
Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently.
公共場所和工作場所的監控,以防止無所不在的暴力和一切行動都記錄永久。
Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.
個人隱私是一個重大的政治問題,而有些人自我保護和牢不可破的計算機代碼。
The basic needs of the underclass are met.
基本需求得到滿足的下層。
(Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries)
(未說明如果這僅涉及到發達國家或所有國家)
Virtual artists—creative computers capable of making their own art and music—emerge in all fields of the arts.
虛擬的藝術家創作的電腦能夠使自己的藝術和音樂出現在各個領域的藝術。


2018---
10 13位的計算機內存大致相等的內存空間在一個人的大腦將耗資1000美元。


2014---
自動打掃機器人將成為普遍

2010---
超級計算機將具有相同的原始人類大腦的計算能力,但該軟件來模擬人類思維的計算機上不存在。
Computers will start to disappear as distinct physical objects, meaning many will have nontraditional shapes or will be embedded in clothing and everyday objects.
計算機將開始消失作為獨特的物理對象,這意味著將有許多非傳統的形狀或將嵌入服裝和日常用品。
Full-immersion audio-visual virtual reality will exist.
全浸泡視聽虛擬現實將存在
電腦變得更小,越來越融入到日常生活。
More and more computer devices will be used as miniature web servers, and more will have their resources pooled for computation.
越來越多的電腦設備將被用來作為小型網絡服務器,將有更多的資源集中用於計算。
High-quality broadband Internet access will become available almost everywhere.
高質量的寬帶互聯網接入將變得可用,幾乎無處不在。
Glasses that beam images onto the users' retinas to produce virtual reality will be developed.
眼鏡,束圖​​像到用戶的視網膜產生虛擬現實將得到發展。
They will also come with speakers or headphone attachments that will complete the experience with sounds.
他們也將與揚聲器或耳機的附件,將完成經驗與聲音。
The VR glasses will also have built-in computers featuring "virtual assistant" programs that can help the user with various daily tasks.
虛擬現實眼鏡會也有內建的計算機具有“虛擬助手”程序,可以幫助用戶各種日常任務。
(see Augmented Reality )
(見增強現實 )
Virtual assistants would be capable of multiple functions
.虛擬助理能夠將多種功能。
One useful function would be real-time language translation in which words spoken in a foreign language would be translated into text that would appear as subtitles to a user wearing the glasses.
一個有用的功能將是實時語言翻譯中所說的話在外國語言將被翻譯成文字,將字幕顯示為用戶戴眼鏡。
Cell phones will be built into clothing and will be able to project sounds directly into the ears of their users.
手機將建設成為服裝和項目將能直接進入耳朵的聲音對他們的用戶。
Advertisements will utilize a new technology whereby two ultrasonic beams can be targeted to intersect at a specific point, delivering a localized sound message that only a single person can hear.
廣告將採用新技術,使兩個超聲波束可以有針對性地相交於一個特定的點,提供本地化的聲音信息,只有一個人可以聽到。
This was depicted in the movie Minority Report
.這是描繪在電影少數派報告 。


2009---
大多數書籍將在屏幕上閱讀,而不是紙。
Most text will be created using speech recognition technology.
大多數文本將被創建使用語音識別技術。
Intelligent roads and driverless cars will be in use, mostly on highways.
智能公路和無人駕駛車將在使用,主要是在公路上。

2000~2008---
課堂是佔主導地位的計算機。
Intelligent courseware that can tailor itself to each student by recognizing their strengths and weaknesses.
智能課件,可以自己定制每個學生承認自己的長處和弱點。
Media technology allows students to manipulate and interact with virtual depictions of the systems and personalities they are studying. Media
技術讓學生實際操作及互動虛擬描繪的系統和人物,他們正在研究。
A small number of highly skilled people dominates the entire production sector.
一小部分人佔主導地位的高度熟練的整個生產部門。
Tailoring of products for individuals is common.
裁縫個人產品是常見的。
Drugs are designed and tested in simulations that mimic the human body.
藥物的設計和測試,模擬,模仿人類的身體。
Blind people navigate and read text using machines that can visually recognize features of their environment
.盲人瀏覽,閱讀文本使用的機器視覺識別功能,可以對他們的環境。

1900~2000---
翻譯電話讓人們彼此交談用不同的語言。
Machines designed to transcribe speech into computer text allow deaf people to understand spoken words.
機器設計轉錄成電腦文字語音讓耳聾的人聽懂的話。
Exoskeletal, robotic leg prostheses allow the paraplegic to walk.
外骨骼,機器人腿假肢讓截癱行走。
Telephone calls are routinely screened by intelligent answering machines that ask questions to determine the call's nature and priority.
電話是常規篩選,智能應答機的提問,以確定呼叫的性質和優先級。
"Cybernetic chauffeurs" can drive cars for humans and can be retrofitted into existing cars.
“控制論司機”可以驅動汽車,可為人類改裝到現有的汽車。 They work by communicating with other vehicles and with sensors embedded along the roads.
他們的工作與其他車輛,通信與嵌入式傳感器沿道路。























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http://dotsub.com/view/abd891c5-7f07-4516-a644-e4e350ba7322
Susan Lim: 移植細胞,而不是器官
我在两位伟大的外科先驱者 授权下训练移植手术: 他们是托马斯·斯塔齐尔, 世界上第一个成功完成肝脏移植手术的人 在1967年, 以及罗伊·卡恩爵士, 在英国第一个完成肝脏移植手术的人 在之后的那年(1978)。 我回到新加坡 然后,在1990年 完成了亚洲首例 尸肝移植手术, 尽管它极其的困难。 现在,当我回想起, 这次移植其实是最简单的一部分。 下一步,凑钱来资助手术。 但是可能最有挑战行的部分 是去说服那些立法者-- 一件在议会辩论过的事宜-- 关于一个年轻的女性外科医生 被给予机会 成为她的国家的先驱。 20年过去了, 我的病人,萨伦德, 是亚洲尸肝移植的 最长存活记录。 (掌声) 也许更重要的, 我有幸成为她 14岁儿子的教母。
(掌声)
但是不是所有在移植等待列表上的病人 都是这么幸运的。 现实是, 捐献的器官还是不够 周转。 当捐献器官的需求 持续的增加, 很多一部分是因为人口老龄化问题, 然而供应还是相对的保持稳定。 仅仅美国, 10万人,男人,女人还有小孩 在等待捐助的器官, 而且每天有十几人死亡 就因为缺少捐献的器官。 移植团体 活跃于器官捐献的活动中。 而且器官(捐赠范围) 已经被扩大化 从脑死亡的捐献者 到活体的亲属捐献者-- 亲属可能捐献整个器官 或者一部分器官, 比如劈裂式肝移植, 给亲属或者是所爱的人。
但是捐献器官还是十分短缺, 接着器官(捐赠范围)再一次扩大 从活体亲属捐献者 现在到了活体的非亲属捐献者。 然后这就引发了 未遇见和料想到的 道德纷争。 怎么才能辨别 捐献者是自愿和无私的 而不是被迫的或强制的 从,比如, 忠诚的伴侣,媳婿, 仆人,奴隶, 雇员? 我们什么时候如何才能加以界限? 在我的世界里, 很多人生活在贫困线之下。 而且有些地方, 用活体的非亲属的器官捐赠 来换取金钱上的回报 已经是一个兴旺 的行业。
在我完成第一例肝移植后不久, 我接到我下一个人物, 是步入监狱中 从死刑犯人身上 获取器官。 我当时怀孕了。 在任何女性的生命中 怀孕意味着 喜悦以及使命感。 但是我的这段喜悦的时间 却被严肃的病态的想法所摧毁-- 关于经过 最高安保的死刑囚犯的囚房, 就像这是唯一的道路 带我去那临时手术室的想法。 每当这时, 我就能感到那 跟随我的从死刑犯人眼中的冰冷的目光。 之后的2年, 我挣扎在这窘境中 早上4点30醒 每周五凌晨, 开车到监狱, 着手准备,戴上手套,消过毒, 准备接手 死刑犯人的尸体, 移出器官 然后到运送这些器官 到接受者的医院 然后当天下午 给接受者移植这些 毫无疑问的,我是被告知, 是获得了准许(捐赠器官)。
但是我一生, 现在真正感到冲突-- 冲突的范围 从清晨的极度悲伤和迷惑 到黄昏的庆祝 移植器官成功的喜悦。 我的团队中, 一两个我的同事的生活 也被这样的经历所困扰。 我们中一些已经看开了, 但是其实我们没有人还是原来的自己。 我很疑惑 从死刑囚犯取下器官 至少道德上是有争议的 就像从人类胚胎中 获取肝细胞。 并且我认为, 作为一个外科先锋人物 它让我想起 是否有更好的方法-- 一种规避死亡 同时获得器官 这样可能会影响到 全世界成千上万的病人。
现在就是时候, 外科手术的实行 正从大到小, 从大的开放性的切口 到孔洞式的 微开口。 而且移植手术的概念已经传遍 从完整器官到细胞。 1988年,在明尼苏达大学, 我参与了一系列 关于完整胰脏移植手术。 我见证此科技的困难性。 同时这激发了我的思考 一个转变从移植真个器官 也许到移植细胞。 我寻思着, 为什么不能把个体细胞 移出胰脏-- 那种分泌出胰岛素治疗糖尿病的细胞-- 并且移植这些细胞呢?-- 技术的角度讲这是更简单的过程 相比于克服移植 整个细胞的复杂程度。
那是, 肝细胞研究 已经有些许进展, 世界上首次分离出 人类胚胎肝细胞 在90年代。 观察表明肝细胞,也叫肥大细胞, 能发育成 所有种类的细胞-- 心肌细胞,肝细胞, 胰岛细胞-- 引起了医学界的关注 和公众的想象力。 我也被这种全新的 突破性的科技所吸引, 同时这激发了我思维上的转变, 从移植整个器官 到移植细胞。 我把我的研究集中在 可能成为 细胞移植的肝细胞中。
今天我们意识到 有很多种不同的肝细胞。 胚胎单细胞 已经占据了中心位置, 主要是因为他们的多能性-- 就是他们能轻松的分化成 不同种类的细胞。 但是道德上的争论 围绕着胚胎肝细胞-- 事实是这些细胞来源于 5天大的人类胚胎-- 激励研究 其他类型的肝细胞。 我激励我的实验组 集中研究我认为 是最没有争议的干细胞源 脂肪组织,或叫肥肉,对肥肉 现如今已经有着充足的可利用来源-- 你和我一样,我想,很乐意摆脱它。 脂肪源干细胞 是成体肝细胞。 成体干细胞 你和我身上都能找到-- 从我们血液中,从我们骨髓中 从我们脂肪,皮肤和其他器官中。 同时这也证明, 脂肪是一种最优来源的 成体干细胞。 但是成体干细胞 不是胚胎干细胞。 这有局限性: 成体干细胞是成熟的细胞, 就像成年的人类, 这些细胞局思维更加局限 行为更加局限 同时也不能像胚胎干细胞一样 分化成很多种 特定的细胞。
但是在2007年, 两位杰出的人, 日本的新古中山聪 和美国的杰米·汤普逊, 有了一项令人震惊的发现。 他们发现 成体细胞,从你我身上获取的, 可以重新的编辑 变回到类胚胎干细胞, 他们起名为IPS细胞,
因此猜测,在世界各地的科学家在实验室都在竞相转换成人细胞老化 - 成年细胞衰老从你和我 - 他们都在竞相重新编程回到更有用iPS细胞,这些细胞。而在我们实验室,我们致力于走脂肪细胞重新编程为青春喷泉的脂肪丘 - 细胞,那么我们可能会使用其他的形式,更专业,细胞,这一天可作为细胞移植使用。如果这项研究成功的话,那么可以减少需要研究和牺牲人类胚胎。
事实上,有很多的炒作,同时也希望干细胞的承诺,将一天的条件提供一整套的治疗方法。心脏病,中风,糖尿病,脊髓损伤,肌肉萎缩症,视网膜疾病 - 是这些条件的相关亲自告诉你们啊?
2006年5月,可怕的事情发生在我身上。我正要开始一个机器人操作,但加强对进入手术室的灯光明亮,耀眼的电梯时,我意识到我的左视场快速进入黑暗崩溃。本周早些时候,我采取了在晚春滑雪比较硬敲 - 是的,我摔倒。我开始看到漂浮物和星星,我随便过多高空晒太阳驳回。我怎么可能是灾难性的,如果不是事实,我在访问达到了良好的手术。而我有我的视力恢复,但在此之前长期的疗养 - 在头向下的位置 - 三个月。这次经历教会了我更多的同情,我的病人,特别是与视网膜疾病的。
全世界有3700万人失明,127多万患有视觉障碍。干细胞衍生的视网膜移植手术目前处于研究阶段,可能一天恢复视力,或与世界各地的数百万患者视网膜病变的部分视力。事实上,我们生活在充满挑战和激动人心的时刻。随着世界人口老龄化,科学家们正在争先恐后地发现新的方法来增强身体的力量,通过干细胞治疗本身。
这是一个事实,即当我们的器官或组织受伤,我们的骨髓干细胞释放到我们的循环细胞。而这些干细胞然后浮到受损的器官释放生长因子,修复受损组织的血液和家庭。干细胞可作为构建块来修复损坏我们的身体内支架,或提供新的肝细胞修复受损的肝脏。在我们发言,有117个左右的干细胞研究的肝脏疾病防治的临床试验。
是什么样的未来?心脏疾病是全球主要的死亡原因。 110万美国人患有心脏病的生产能力。 480万患有心力衰竭。干细胞可被用于运载生长因子,修复受损的心脏肌肉或肌肉细胞分化成心脏,恢复心脏功能。有170个调查干细胞在心脏疾病中的作用进行临床试验。虽然仍然在研究阶段,干细胞可能有一天预示着在心脏病学领域的飞跃。
干细胞为新的开端的希望 - 小,渐进的步骤,而不是器官的细胞修复,而不是替代。干细胞疗法可能有一天会减少对捐赠器官的需要。强大的新技术总是存在的谜团。在我们发言的时候,世界上第一个人类胚胎干细胞对脊髓损伤的研究已在进行继美国FDA的批准。而在英国,神经干细胞治疗中风正在试验中的第一阶段调查。
这项研究的成功,我们今天庆祝已经成为可能,好奇心和贡献,个别科学家和医疗先锋承诺。每个人都有自己的故事。我的故事一直对我的旅程从器官到细胞 - 通过争议的旅程中,希望启发 - 希望,随着年龄的增长,你和我可能一天庆祝提高生活质量的长寿。

谢谢。




---------------
Susan Lim: Transplant cells, not organs
So I was privileged to train in transplantation under two great surgical pioneers: Thomas Starzl, who performed the world's first successful liver transplant in 1967, and Sir Roy Calne, who performed the first liver transplant in the U.K. in the following year. I returned to Singapore and, in 1990, performed Asia's first successful cadaveric liver transplant procedure, but against all odds. Now when I look back, the transplant was actually the easiest part. Next, raising the money to fund the procedure. But perhaps the most challenging part was to convince the regulators -- a matter which was debated in the parliament -- that a young female surgeon be allowed the opportunity to pioneer for her country. But 20 years on, my patient, Surinder, is Asia's longest surviving cadaveric liver transplant to date. (Applause) And perhaps more important, I am the proud godmother to her 14 year-old son.

(Applause)

But not all patients on the transplant wait list are so fortunate. The truth is, there are just simply not enough donor organs to go around. As the demand for donor organs continues to rise, in large part due to the aging population, the supply has remained relatively constant. In the United States alone, 100,000 men, women and children are on the waiting list for donor organs, and more than a dozen die each day because of a lack of donor organs. The transplant community has actively campaigned in organ donation. And the gift of life has been extended from brain-dead donors to living, related donors -- relatives who might donate an organ or a part of an organ, like a split liver graft, to a relative or loved one.

But as there was still a dire shortage of donor organs, the gift of life was then extended from living, related donors to now living, unrelated donors. And this then has given rise to unprecedented and unexpected moral controversy. How can one distinguish a donation that is voluntary and altruistic from one that is forced or coerced from, for example, a submissive spouse, an in-law, a servant, a slave, an employee? Where and how can we draw the line? In my part of the world, too many people live below the poverty line. And in some areas, the commercial gifting of an organ in exchange for monetary reward has led to a flourishing trade in living, unrelated donors.

Shortly after I performed the first liver transplant, I received my next assignment, and that was to go to the prisons to harvest organs from executed prisoners. I was also pregnant at the time. Pregnancies are meant to be happy and fulfilling moments in any woman's life. But my joyful period was marred by solemn and morbid thoughts -- thoughts of walking through the prison's high-security death row, as this was the only route to take me to the makeshift operating room. And at each time, I would feel the chilling stares of condemned prisoners' eyes follow me. And for two years, I struggled with the dilemma of waking up at 4:30 am on a Friday morning, driving to the prison, getting down, gloved and scrubbed, ready to receive the body of an executed prisoner, remove the organs and then transport these organs to the recipient hospital and then graft the gift of life to a recipient the same afternoon. No doubt, I was informed, the consent had been obtained.

But in my life, the one fulfilling skill that I had was now invoking feelings of conflict -- conflict ranging from extreme sorrow and doubt at dawn to celebratory joy at engrafting the gift of life at dusk. In my team, the lives of one or two of my colleagues were tainted by this experience. Some of us may have been sublimated, but really none of us remained the same. I was troubled that the retrieval of organs from executed prisoners was at least as morally controversial as the harvesting of stem cells from human embryos. And in my mind, I realized as a surgical pioneer that the purpose of my position of influence was surely to speak up for those who have no influence. It made me wonder if there could be a better way -- a way to circumvent death and yet deliver the gift of life that might exponentially impact millions of patients worldwide.

Now just about that time, the practice of surgery evolved from big to small, from wide open incisions to keyhole procedures, tiny incisions. And in transplantation, concepts shifted from whole organs to cells. In 1988, at the University of Minnesota, I participated in a small series of whole organ pancreas transplants. I witnessed the technical difficulty. And this inspired in my mind a shift from transplanting whole organs to perhaps transplanting cells. I thought to myself, why not take the individual cells out of the pancreas -- the cells that secrete insulin to cure diabetes -- and transplant these cells? -- technically a much simpler procedure than having to grapple with the complexities of transplanting a whole organ.

And at that time, stem cell research had gained momentum, following the isolation of the world's first human embryonic stem cells in the 1990's. The observation that stem cells, as master cells, could give rise to a whole variety of different cell types -- heart cells, liver cells, pancreatic islet cells -- captured the attention of the media and the imagination of the public. I too was fascinated by this new and disruptive cell technology, and this inspired a shift in my mindset, from transplanting whole organs to transplanting cells. And I focused my research on stem cells as a possible source for cell transplants.

Today we realize that there are many different types of stem cells. Embryonic stem cells have occupied center stage, chiefly because of their pluripotency -- that is their ease in differentiating into a variety of different cell types. But the moral controversy surrounding embryonic stem cells -- the fact that these cells are derived from five-day old human embryos -- has encouraged research into other types of stem cells.

Now to the ridicule of my colleagues, I inspired my lab to focus on what I thought was the most non-controversial source of stem cells, adipose tissue, or fat, yes fat -- nowadays available in abundant supply -- you and I, I think, would be very happy to get rid of anyway. Fat-derived stem cells are adult stem cells. And adult stem cells are found in you and me -- in our blood, in our bone marrow, in our fat, our skin and other organs. And as it turns out, fat is one of the best sources of adult stem cells. But adult stem cells are not embryonic stem cells. And here is the limitation: adult stem cells are mature cells, and, like mature human beings, these cells are more restricted in their thought and more restricted in their behavior and are unable to give rise to the wide variety of specialized cell types, as embryonic stem cells.

But in 2007, two remarkable individuals, Shinya Yamanaka of Japan and Jamie Thompson of the United States, made an astounding discovery. They discovered that adult cells, taken from you and me, could be reprogrammed back into embryonic-like cells, which they termed IPS cells, or induced pluripotent stem cells. And so guess what, scientists around the world and in the labs are racing to convert aging adult cells -- aging adult cells from you and me -- they are racing to reprogram these cells back into more useful IPS cells. And in our lab, we are focused on taking fat and reprogramming mounds of fat into fountains of youthful cells -- cells that we may use to then form other, more specialized, cells, which one day may be used as cell transplants. If this research is successful, it may then reduce the need to research and sacrifice human embryos.

Indeed, there is a lot of hype, but also hope that the promise of stem cells will one day provide cures for a whole range of conditions. Heart disease, stroke, diabetes, spinal cord injury, muscular dystrophy, retinal eye diseases -- are any of these conditions relevant personally to you?

In May 2006, something horrible happened to me. I was about to start a robotic operation, but stepping out of the elevator into the bright and glaring lights of the operating room, I realized that my left visual field was fast collapsing into darkness. Earlier that week, I had taken a rather hard knock during late spring skiing -- yes, I fell. And I started to see floaters and stars, which I casually dismissed as too much high-altitude sun exposure. What happened to me might have been catastrophic, if not for the fact that I was in reach of good surgical access. And I had my vision restored, but not before a prolonged period of convalescence -- three months -- in a head down position. This experience taught me to empathize more with my patients, and especially those with retinal diseases.

37 million people worldwide are blind, and 127 million more suffer from impaired vision. Stem cell-derived retinal transplants, now in a research phase, may one day restore vision, or part vision, to millions of patients with retinal diseases worldwide. Indeed, we live in both challenging as well as exciting times. As the world population ages, scientists are racing to discover new ways to enhance the power of the body to heal itself through stem cells.

It is a fact that when our organs or tissues are injured, our bone marrow releases stem cells into our circulation. And these stem cells then float in the bloodstream and home in to damaged organs to release growth factors to repair the damaged tissue. Stem cells may be used as building blocks to repair damaged scaffolds within our body, or to provide new liver cells to repair damaged liver. As we speak, there are 117 or so clinical trials researching the use of stem cells for liver diseases.

What lies ahead? Heart disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. 1.1 million Americans suffer heart attacks yearly. 4.8 million suffer cardiac failure. Stem cells may be used to deliver growth factors to repair damaged heart muscle or be differentiated into heart muscle cells to restore heart function. There are 170 clinical trials investigating the role of stem cells in heart disease. While still in a research phase, stem cells may one day herald a quantum leap in the field of cardiology.

Stem cells provide hope for new beginnings -- small, incremental steps, cells rather than organs, repair rather than replacement. Stem cell therapies may one day reduce the need for donor organs. Powerful new technologies always present enigmas. As we speak, the world's first human embryonic stem cell trial for spinal cord injury is currently underway following the USFDA approval. And in the U.K., neural stem cells to treat stroke are being investigated in a phase one trial.

The research success that we celebrate today has been made possible by the curiosity and contribution and commitment of individual scientists and medical pioneers. Each one has his story. My story has been about my journey from organs to cells -- a journey through controversy, inspired by hope -- hope that, as we age, you and I may one day celebrate longevity with an improved quality of life.

Thank you.

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2025年---亞洲醫療旅遊服務業增長50%
2015年---《上海卫生发展“十一五”规划》:上海建成亚洲医疗中心城市
2013年---新加坡Connexion醫學中心開幕
---包含一座私立大型急重症醫院、醫學中心、購物中心,豪華旅館,
2012年---麥肯錫 :亞洲醫療旅遊服務額達1000億美元
---2007年亞洲醫療旅遊服務達340億美元,佔全球市場份額12.7%
2012年---經建會 :預估亞洲地區醫療服務產業產值1450億新台幣
2010年---韓國投資3.15億美元,將濟州島興建為醫療旅遊服務的國際樞紐
2008年---麥肯錫 :醫療旅遊市場(不包括尋求輔助醫療以及選擇單純門診治療的「保健旅客」)每年約有六萬到八萬五千人次。
---40%考量先進醫療技術,32%想要較好醫療照護品質,15%想要比較快速醫療服務,9%訴求較低價格

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